Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.016562 0.018743 0.021106 0.023855 0.026969 0.030385 0.034421
2025-09-14 0.012579 0.015457 0.018841 0.023114 0.028372 0.034636 0.042679
2025-09-21 0.010514 0.013667 0.017586 0.022820 0.029638 0.038235 0.049924
2025-09-28 0.008896 0.012107 0.016284 0.022123 0.030095 0.040621 0.055625
2025-10-05 0.008212 0.011631 0.016260 0.022996 0.032573 0.045743 0.065306
2025-10-12 0.007559 0.011096 0.016057 0.023538 0.034572 0.050306 0.074559
2025-10-19 0.007034 0.010667 0.015931 0.024133 0.036641 0.055080 0.084487
2025-10-26 0.006396 0.009995 0.015368 0.023995 0.037564 0.058190 0.092132
2025-11-02 0.005884 0.009457 0.014941 0.023999 0.038664 0.061606 0.100491
2025-11-09 0.005342 0.008815 0.014286 0.023567 0.039004 0.063817 0.107055
2025-11-16 0.005016 0.008487 0.014094 0.023849 0.040501 0.067970 0.117123
2025-11-23 0.004634 0.008029 0.013645 0.023653 0.041164 0.070766 0.125089
2025-11-30 0.004409 0.007826 0.013615 0.024184 0.043145 0.076006 0.137877
2025-12-07 0.003986 0.007239 0.012879 0.023419 0.042784 0.077158 0.143485
2025-12-14 0.003683 0.006839 0.012432 0.023121 0.043220 0.079726 0.151860
2025-12-21 0.003351 0.006356 0.011795 0.022415 0.042831 0.080738 0.157365
2025-12-28 0.003271 0.006335 0.012000 0.023300 0.045502 0.087642 0.174775
2026-01-04 0.003151 0.006228 0.012032 0.023849 0.047566 0.093542 0.190707
2026-01-11 0.003046 0.006140 0.012090 0.024452 0.049776 0.099889 0.208076
2026-01-18 0.002862 0.005879 0.011792 0.024312 0.050473 0.103272 0.219613
2026-01-25 0.002709 0.005668 0.011574 0.024316 0.051459 0.107308 0.232851
2026-02-01 0.002523 0.005372 0.011161 0.023878 0.051476 0.109329 0.241915
2026-02-08 0.002422 0.005248 0.011093 0.024164 0.053058 0.114762 0.258910